PAGCOR Chair Highlights Risks to 2026 Gaming Revenue from Regional Tensions

Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation Chair and CEO Alejandro Tengco outlined projections for gross gaming revenue in 2026 during early June statements, noting potential declines tied to ongoing pressures from the Middle East conflict and their effects on consumer behavior across income levels.

Projected Figures and Comparisons

The forecast places 2026 GGR between Php320 billion and Php350 billion, equivalent to US$5.20–5.69 billion, which represents a drop of up to 19 percent from the Php396.1 billion or US$6.44 billion recorded in 2025; that earlier total marked a record high for the sector according to official tallies. Observers note that these numbers reflect the cumulative weight of external economic factors, with lower-income segments facing particular strain that reduces discretionary spending on gaming activities.

Online gambling forms a key part of the picture because prior regulatory adjustments such as e-wallet de-linking already produced a 22.4 percent decline in that segment during the first quarter of 2026. Tengco connected these earlier shifts directly to the broader outlook, explaining how reduced consumer capacity intersects with international events to shape overall performance.

Primary Drivers Behind the Outlook

The Middle East conflict receives primary attention in the assessment because it influences spending patterns, particularly among groups that historically support both land-based and digital platforms. Data from the period shows lower-income participants cutting back first, which in turn affects the online sector more sharply than traditional venues in some quarters.

Yet tourism developments offer a counterbalance, with rising arrivals from Chinese visitors cited as one area that could support revenue stability if current trends continue through the year. These inflows have shown steady growth in recent months, providing operators with an additional stream that may offset some domestic reductions.

Context Around Regulatory and Market Adjustments

Regulatory changes implemented before 2026 already altered transaction flows for online operators, and the subsequent revenue dip in Q1 demonstrated how quickly such measures can influence results. Tengco's comments tie these domestic steps to the external pressures from regional conflict, creating a layered view of what drives the projected contraction.

Figures released alongside the statement break down the expected range without assigning exact probabilities to each outcome, leaving room for variables such as sustained visitor growth or further shifts in consumer patterns. Those who track PAGCOR reporting note that the 2025 record serves as the baseline, making any percentage decline appear more pronounced against that high point.

Broader Sector Implications from the Statement

Operators across both online and physical locations face the task of adjusting strategies around the identified risks, with emphasis on segments that have shown resilience through tourism channels. The statement positions the online decline as partly attributable to earlier rules, while the conflict adds a new layer that hits spending capacity across the board.

Evidence presented links the two elements without assigning sole responsibility to either, allowing for a combined reading of how local policy and global events interact. Rising Chinese arrivals stand out in the positive column because they represent an expanding market segment that has historically contributed to table games and resort revenues.

Conclusion

Tengco's assessment supplies a clear numerical range and causal framework for 2026 expectations, grounded in the 2025 record and the documented Q1 online drop. The combination of conflict-related spending pressure, prior regulatory effects, and tourism offsets forms the core of the outlook shared in early June. PAGCOR’s 2025 GGR figures and 2026 forecast statements provide the direct source for these details, underscoring how interconnected regional developments continue to shape Philippine gaming performance.